Friday, April 29, 2011

It's Official: Swollen Waterways in New Orleans Indicates Possibility of Mississippi River Flooding


Planetary Note 4/29/11: We've been watching the water levels rising on the levee's. The Old Miss River is swollen, her waters spilling onto some of the banks.



 "I still don't think people understand the immensity of this flood,"  "The rain event we've had the past two weeks is 600 percent above normal."

Maj. Gen. Michael Walsh, Mississippi River Commission President


Last map update: Thu, May. 5, 2011 at 9:03:38 am CDT


Mississippi River Updates:


STATION  Flood Stage  7PM 12HR ....F O R E C A S T.....        CREST DATE

BATON ROUGE           
5-4-11   35 35.4 +0.5 35.6 36.4 37.0 37.7 38.4 47.5       05/23P A.05/03
5-5-11   35 36.3 +0.4 36.9  37.9 39.0 40.1 41.1 47.5      05/23P
5-6-11  *37.76
5-7-11  *38.39 24hr + 0.78
5-8-11  *39.52 24hr + 1.13
5-9-11  *40.2   24hr + 1.20
5-10-11 *41.89 24hr+ 1.00
5-11-11 *42.69 24hr +0.64
5-12-11 missing data
5-13-11 *43.68 24hr +0.29
5-14-11 *43.92 24hr +0.50
5-15-11 *44.35 24hr +0.53
5-16-11 *44.44 24hr +0.04
5-17-11 *44.73 24hr +0.31
5-18-11 *44.72 24 hr+0.12
5-19-11 *44.71 24HR-0.03


DONALDSONVILLE   
5-4-11   27 25.1 +0.5 25.3 25.9 26.5 27.0 27.6 36.0       05/23P A.05/06P
5-5-11   27 26.1 +0.6 26.6 27.6 28.7 29.7 30.7 36.0       05/23P
5-6-11  *27.33
5-7-11 *27.83 24hr + 0.68
5-8-11 *28.80 24hr +0.99
5-9-11 *29.88 24hr +1.08
5-10-11*30.73 24hr+0.76
5-11-11*31.10 24hr+0.45
5-12-11 missing data
5-13-11 *31.84 24hr +0.34
5-14-11 *31.97 24hr +0.40
5-15-11 *32.14 24hr +033
5-16-11 *32.38 24hr +0.24
5-17-11 *32.30  24hr -0.04
5-18-11*32.43  24hr +0.13
5-19-11 *32.39  24hr  0.00

RESERVE     
 5-4-11  22 19.3E MSG 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.9 21.3 25.0    05/24A A.05/13A
 5-5-11  22 20.2 +0.7     20.1 20.7 21.3 21.9 22.5 25.0    05/24A
 5-6-11  *21.04
 5-7-11  *21.45 24hr +0.53  
5-8-11   *22.20 24hr +0.75 
5-9-11   *23.12 24hr +0.92 
5-10-11 *23.46 24hr +0.66
5-11-11 *23.76 24hr +0.20
5-12-11 missing data
5-13-11  *23.46 24hr -0.08
5-14-11 *23.60 24hr +0.03
5-15-11 *23.59 24hr +0.04
5-16-11 *23.81 24hr - 0.05
5-17-11 *23.85 24hr +0.07
5-18-11 *23.90 24hr +0.07
5-19-11*23.94 24hr  +0.04

BONNE CARRE - NORTH OF SPILLWAY
5-7-11  19.40  24hr +0.47
5-8-11  20.05 24hr +0.60
5-9-11  20.90 24hr +0.85
5-10-11 21.30 24hr +0.37
5-11-11 21.33 24hr +0.09
5-12-11 missing data
5-13-11 20.80 24hr -0.13
5-14-11 20.88 24hr +0.07
5-15-11 20.87 24hr -0.01
5-16-11 21.08 24hr -0.10
5-17-11 21.02 24hr -0.02
5-18-11 21.13 24hr +0.07
5-19-11 21.26 24hr +0.04

BONNE CARRE (01280)
5-7-11 19.39 24hr +0.47
5-8-11 20.05 24hr +0.70
5-9-11 20.05 24hr +0.60
5-10-11 21.38 24hr +0.36
5-11-11 21.47 24hr +0.08 After 2nd opeing Bonne Carre Spillway
5-12-11 missing data
5-13-11 21.40 24hr -0.15
5-14-11 21.26
24hr +0.03

5-15-11 21.26 24hr +0.05
5-16-11 21.47 24hr +0.11
5-17-11 21.46 24hr +0.08
5-18-11 21.48 24hr +0.04
5-19-11 21.56 24hr -0.05

NEW ORLEANS (CARROLLTON 01300)  
5-4-11  17 14.0E MSG 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.1 15.4 17.0    05/24A
5-5-11  17 14.7  +0.6   14.5  15.0 15.3 15.7 16.1 17.0   05/24A
5-6-11  17 *15.16 +0.5 15.4 15.9 16.3 16.6 17.1 19.5    05/24A A.5/11A
5-7-11  17 *15.51 24hr +0.40
5-8-11  17 *15.85 24hr +0.57
5-9-11  17 *16.51 24hr +0.66 After opening of Bonne Carre: 16.65 24hr +0.51 1400 hrs
                                                                                                         16.71 24hr +0.33 1700 hrs
5-10-11 17  *16.96 24hr +0.33
5-11-11 17  *17.04 24hr +0.13
5-12-11 17 missing data
5-13-11 17  *16.70 24hr -0.08
5-14-11 17 *16.80 24hr +0.02 w/24hr precip +0.42 
5-15-11 17 *16.88 24hr +0.12 After opening of Morganza Spillway 5-14-11
5-16-11 17 *17.05 24hr +0.03
5-17-11 17 *17.15 24hr +0.17
5-18-11 17 *17.19 24hr  -0.03
5-19-11 17 *`7.21 24hr +0.01

As of 5/20/11 alll updates can be found at this blog posting: http://postkatrina2008.blogspot.com/2011/05/may-3-2011-photos-new-orleans-levee-137.html
or go to the source:

NEW ORLEANS FORECAST ASSUMES UPSTREAM STRUCTURES WILL BE OPERATED TO MAINTAIN STAGE OF 17.0 FEET

NEW ORLEANS FORECAST ASSUMES UPSTREAM STRUCTURES WILL BE OPERATED TO MAINTAIN STAGE OF 17.0 FEET


UPDATES: ARMY CORPS ENGINEERS:

Monday, May 9, 2011
The Bonnet Carré Spillway will be open on Monday, May 9, 2011 in order to keep the volume of Mississippi River flows at New Orleans from exceeding 1.25 million cubic feet per second (cfs). Opening procedures will begin at approximately 8 a.m. Media and the general public are allowed to view the spillway opening at the Bonnet Carré Spillway Project Office, located at 16302 River Roadin Norco, Louisiana. The opening of the Bonnet Carre Spillway can be watched from your computer by going to the following link http://www.ustream.tv/channel/bonnet-carre. We anticipate the channel will be live at approximately 0755 on Monday, May 9, 2011.


River links:


Related Mississppi River Flooding 2011:

HoumaToday:Flood will deal blow to struggling oystermen
The corps is also considering opening the Morganza Spillway, about 35 miles northwest of Baton Rouge. It diverts river water into the Atchafalaya Basin. It hasn't been opened since 1973.  (read more)

NOLA.com:University of Iowa sends flood barriers to Louisiana





DAILY FLOOD STATEMENTS:
water.weather.gov

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS BATON ROUGE LA

* IMPACT...AT 64.0 FEET...MAJOR FLOODING IS IN PROGRESS. ANGOLA

LANDING WILL REMAIN UNDER WATER AND FERRY SERVICE WILL BE TERMINATED. ALL RIVER ISLANDS, RECREATIONAL CAMPS, AND RIVER BOTTOM FARM LAND WILL BE UNDER WATER.

* IMPACT...AT 54.0 FEET...ALL RIVER ISLANDS ALONG THE REACH FROM RED RIVER LANDING TO BATON ROUGE WILL BE INUNDATED. RECREATIONAL CAMPS AND RIVER BOTTOM LAND WILL BE UNDER WATER. WATER APPROACHES ANGOLA FARM LAND.




3rd Levee Blast - Scheduled for Thursday, May 5 - 1:00 p.m. 
Completed.
Corps: No blast Wednesday night "due to logistical difficulties"
Updated: May 04, 2011 7:54 PM CDT According to the Army Corps of Engineers, the third levee blast that was scheduled for Wednesday night has been delayed once again.
Third levee blast rescheduled for Wednesday night updated:
May 04, 2011 1:26 PM CDT According to the Army Corps of Engineers, the third levee blast that was scheduled for Wednesday at 10 a.m. has been delayed until 8 p.m. or 9 p.m.


 http://www.kfvs12.com

Third levee blast scheduled for Wednesday morning

At a news conference Tuesday night, Major General Michael Walsh explained they needed to bring in more explosive slurry mix for the 3rd blast.

The 3rd levee breach will take place southeast of Big Oak tree State Park further northeast of Tuesday's blast. http://www.kfvs12.com/


Second levee blast completed
The second blast took place around 12:37-12:38 p.m. according to the helicorders reading. The Corps say they will hold a press conference at the Joint Information Center at 6 p.m. Tuesday.  Updated: May 03, 2011

MISSISSIPPI COUNTY, MO (KFVS) - Maj. General Michael Walsh, President of the Mississippi River Commission, says he has decided to operate the floodway project at Birds Point - New Madrid Floodway.

Maj. General Walsh says it is a "heart-wrenching" situation.



















*Planetary Editorial Note: Whilst your planetary sister holds by most of the
information presented, she does not uphold political opinions presented in the video.

Planetary Update: 5/1/11 7:27 p.m. Central Time US:

SIKESTON, Mo.— Maj. Gen. Michael J. Walsh, President of the Mississippi River Commission, has directed Col. Vernie Reichling, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Memphis District Commander and field crews to move the barges across the river to Missouri and load the pipes with the binary agent at the Birds Point-New Madrid Floodway.

Mississippi River Floods 2011: Deep South Braces For Surge Of Water Not Seen Since 1927

NEW ORLEANS -- A surge of water not seen since the Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 is forecast in coming days to test the enormous levees lining the Mississippi River on its course through the Deep South, adding another element of danger to a region already raked by deadly tornadoes and thunderstorms.

Mississippi's and Louisiana's governors issued flood warnings Thursday and declared states of emergency. Authorities along the swollen waterway in both states are warning nearby residents to brace for the possibility of any flooding. River boat casinos in Mississippi are closing and levee managers are readying sand bags and supplies – and the manpower to build the defenses – to fight the rising river along hundreds of levees in both states where the river crosses en route to the Gulf of Mexico.

"We're going to do everything we can to prepare for the worst-case scenario while we still are hoping for the best case," Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said, adding the state was prepared to withstand the test.

Louisiana is still recovering from powerful Hurricane Katrina, which struck in August 2005 as levees broke under surging waters and more than 80 percent of New Orleans was flooded. Since 2005, the corps has spent billions of dollars in repairing levees and improving the city's flood protections, but the vast majority of that work has been focused on protecting the city from hurricane surge, not river flooding.

While authorities who manage the levees express confidence that those structures can withstand the enormous surge, the high waters are expected to put pressure on the levees for as many as 10 days – and that has officials concerned.

"It is going to be a slow-moving crest and what that means is it does put pressure on those levees," Jindal said.

River flooding, fed by heavy rains across the Mississippi River valley, is already a serious problem hundreds of miles upriver, particularly in Missouri where the Army Corps of Engineers is considering whether to blow up a levee to relieve pressure on Cairo, Ill, a bottleneck where the Ohio and Mississippi rivers meet.

As the water makes its way downriver, the lower portion of the Mississippi will be tested.

The river is forecast to crest at 53.5 feet on May 18 at Vicksburg, Miss., a key gauge. That is the highest river stage recorded at Vicksburg since the catastrophic flooding of 1927 when the river reached 56.6 feet and would have kept on rising if levees hadn't given way, causing massive flooding and killing hundreds. After that calamity, the nation undertook an aggressive $13 billion plan to build levees and floodways that would avert such a scale of flooding again.

The crest of the high river is expected to reach New Orleans on May 22, and Jindal said the corps was looking at opening a major spillway, the Bonnet Carre, just north of the city to relieve pressure.

Those who manage the levees built up since 1927 expressed confidence in them.

"The levees are designed to withstand 65 feet," said Robert Anderson, a corps spokesman in Vicksburg. But he added that "it has never been tested before quite like it has been tested now."

"I do not expect any breaches on this levee system today. I think we can withstand the water," said Reynold Minsky, the president of the Fifth Louisiana Levee District, which oversees about 260 miles of levees along the Mississippi.

Still, there are concerns.

About 241 miles of levees in the Mississippi River system between Cape Girardeau, Mo., and the Gulf of Mexico need to be heightened or strengthened to meet the corps' standards, according to the corps.

"We have some low points," said James Shivers, the superintendent of the Fifth Louisiana Levee District.

Levee officials said crews would work around the clock to contain leaks that spring up along the levees. Such leaks, known as sand boils, can undermine a levee and cause a section to collapse.

In Mississippi, gambling regulators started closing down nine barge casinos at Tunica. Resorts was closed Thursday, to be followed by one casino each on Friday and Saturday and three each on Sunday and Monday, said Larry Gregory, head of the Mississippi Gaming Commission.

He estimated 10,000 workers would be affected by the closings.

"We anticipate that all of the river casinos will close at some point as the pig goes down the python," said Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour

_______

Associated Press writers Alan Sayre in New Orleans, Molly Davis in Baton Rouge, La., and Emily Wagster Pettus in Jackson, Miss.



Of Planetary Concern:

A few excerpts:

Gene Rench with the National Weather Service said all eyes are on the Mississippi. The tributaries flowing backwards are a big problem for the adjacent communities.



"Right now the Mississippi river is in the process of going through what we call an epic flood, meaning it's more than historic, it's more than a 100 year flood, it's more like a 500 year flood," he said. "We could flood many homes, businesses, close down factories, people could drown."


All Eyes on the Mississippi River
http://www.myfoxmemphis.com/dpp/weather/all-eyes-on-the-mississippi-river-rpt-20110428


Flood may top 1927 record
http://www.thenewsstar.com/article/20110429/NEWS01/104290331/Flood-may-top-1927-record?odyssey=tab


CAPE GIRARDEAU, Missouri (Reuters) - A federal judge on Thursday ended a hearing on plans by the federal government to blow a hole in a Mississippi River levee without issuing an immediate ruling or indicating when he might do so.

U.S. District Judge Stephen N. Limbaugh, Jr. was listening to arguments over whether the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers should breach the Birds Point levee to prevent flooding in Cairo, Illinois, an historic town of almost 3,000 residents.

A levee breach would flood 130,000 acres of Missouri farmland, which contain about 100 homes."

"...The Illinois Attorney General had intervened in the case on the side of the Corps, arguing it was more important to save Cairo than a rural area that had long been designated as a floodway.

"The city of Cairo is on the verge of being the next 9th Ward of New Orleans," Mayor Judson Childs had said in a statement, referring to an area devastated by Hurricane Katrina in 2005."




Note: Cairo, Illinois is a predominately poor African American town. It is the town in which in the book Huck Finn, Jim and Huck are trying to reach to live in freedom. Read the comments section. What struck me is the comparison to blowing up the levee's and flooding a predominately poor African American town and what happened in New Orleans in 1927.

Mississippi River Flooding 2011 Related Articles:
An explosive question

Great Mississippi Flood of 1927

1927 Mississippi flooding Cairo, Ill. and New Orleans: PBS: Fatal Flood

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/04/30/weather-floods-missouri-idUSN3012458220110430

http://ozarksfirst.com/fulltext?nxd_id=447327

http://www.wgil.com/localnews.php?xnewsaction=fullnews&newsarch=042011&newsid=393



EXTENDED STREAMFLOW PREDICTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECAST CENTER, SLIDELL, LA
DATE GEEM6 VCKM6 NTZM6 RRLL1 BTRL1 DONL1 RRVL1 NORL1
                   05-05-11 56.1 48.2 53.1 54.4 36.9 26.6 20.1 14.5 NOLA 14.7
         05-06-11 57.2 49.4 54.3 55.5 37.9 27.6 20.7 15.0 15.16
         05-07-11 58.3 50.5 55.5 56.7 39.0 28.7 21.3 15.3 15.51
                           05-08-11 59.3 51.6 56.6 57.9 40.1 29.7 21.9 15.7 15.85 24hr +0.57
                           05-09-11 60.2 52.6 57.6 59.0 41.1 30.7 22.5 16.1 16.51 24hr +0.66*
                         05-10-11 61.1 53.5 58.6 59.9 42.0 31.3 22.9 16.4 16.96 24hr +0.33
                         05-11-11 61.9 54.4 59.5 60.8 43.0 32.0 23.2 16.7 17.04 24hr +0.13
                        05-12-11 62.7 55.2 60.4 61.6 43.7 32.5 23.4 17.0 missing data
                      05-13-11 63.4 56.0 61.2 62.4 44.5 33.1 23.7 17.0 16.70 -0.08
            05-14-11 63.8 56.6 62.0 63.1 45.1 33.6 24.0 17.0 *16.80 24hr +0.02 w/24hr precip +0.42 05-15-11 64.1 56.9 62.6 63.9 45.8 34.1 24.3 17.0
              05-15-11 After Morganza Spillway Opened 1/4 capacity: 16.88 24hr +0.12
                             05-16-11 64.4 57.2 63.0 64.4 46.2 34.5 24.5 17.0 17.01 24hr +0.03
                            05-17-11 64.5 57.3 63.3 64.7 46.5 34.8 24.6 17.0 17.15 24hr +0.17
05-18-11 64.5 57.4 63.4 64.9 46.7 35.1 24.7 17.0
05-19-11 64.4 57.4 63.7 65.0 46.9 35.4 24.7 17.0
05-20-11 64.3 57.5 63.8 65.2 47.1 35.6 24.8 17.0
05-21-11 64.2 57.5 63.9 65.3 47.2 35.8 24.8 17.0
05-22-11 64.2 57.5 64.0 65.4 47.3 35.9 24.8 17.0
05-23-11 64.0 57.4 64.0 65.5 47.4 35.9 24.9 17.0
05-24-11 63.8 57.3 63.9 65.5 47.5 36.0 25.0 17.0
05-25-11 63.4 57.0 63.8 65.4 47.5 36.0 25.0 17.0
05-26-11 63.0 56.7 63.5 65.3 47.3 35.9 24.9 16.9

* 5-9-11 NOLA After opening of Bonne Carre: 16.65 24hr +0.51 1400 hrs




Message: NOAA-NWS-ALERTS-LA20110502213200FloodWarning20110503153200LA.LIXFLSLIX.5f3885faf4ab0c4e0a7fffc5f03d1e90 from w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov

Key
E - Estimated
MIS - Missing
Under Date Column: A - AM, P - PM
Under (A)BV Column: .A - Above Flood Stage
.B - Below Flood Stage

No comments: